A Check up on the Economy

September 9, 2010 Disclosures POSTED IN Economy

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) the official start of the current recession was December 2007. To date, the organization has not declared the recession officially over; however, the date of the end of a recession can be year or more prior to the announcement made by NBER.

Currently real GDP, which is contracting, is below real potential GDP. Real GDP is nominal GDP adjusted for inflation.

The red line is real GDP and the blue line is real potential GDP

After tax nonfinancial corporate business profits have recovered dramatically but remain about 10% below their mid decade peak.

The civilian employment to population ratio is at a level not seen since the early 1980s.

Total wage and salaries are still down about 4% from the all time peak which occurred in 2008.

The export of goods and services has increased, however exports remain about 10% short of their peak.

Industrial production has increased since the bottom in 2009 but remains about 7% from its peak.

Total new privately owned housing starts are at their lowest level ever since the Census Bureau began monitoring them in the late 1950s.

Retail sales, excluding food services increased over the past two years but remain about 4% below the peak in 2007.

Manufacturer’s non-defense new orders, excluding aircraft, recently contracted and remains about 16% from the pre-recession peak.